Tuesday, October 29, 2024

It is getting later than you think

 



"Unless global emissions in 2030 are brought  below levels resulting from current policies and from the full implementation of the current NDCs, it will become impossible to get to a pathway that limits global warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot (>50 per cent chance), and strongly increase the challenge of limiting warming to 2°C."


"An AMOC collapse would lead to major cooling and extreme weather in Nordic countries, according to the letter. ...  Collapsing ocean currents are also likely to precipitate climate impacts across the Northern Hemisphere, threatening agriculture in Northwestern Europe, according to the letter."


"But the new research, which is being peer-reviewed and hasn’t yet been published in a journal, uses a state-of-the-art model to estimate when it could collapse, suggesting a shutdown could happen between 2037 and 2064. This research suggests it’s more likely than not to collapse by 2050."


"
The effects include a cooling of the northern hemisphere, particularly northwestern Europe. There would also be a shift of the tropical rainfall belt to the south, which is bad because the rains will move away from the rainforests to regions that are not used to so much rainfall. So this will mean droughts in some regions and floods in others.

"Amoc collapse would also have a major impact on the northern Atlantic sea level, which would rise by half a metre or so, in addition to the rise caused by global heating. It would also reduce the CO2 uptake of the ocean because Amoc sinking in the northern Atlantic takes a lot of CO2 down into the deep oceans where it is safely locked away from the atmosphere."


"In their model of the AMOC, London cools by an average of 18°F and Bergen, Norway by 27°F. Sea levels along North America’s east coast would rise significantly, with negative consequences for cities and seaside communities located in that area.'



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